Monthly Archives: August 2011

CDS on RBS higher than 2008

“I think we are heading for a market shock in September or October that will match anything we have ever seen before,” said a senior credit banker at a major European bank.” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8721151/Market-crash-could-hit-within-weeks-warn-bankers.html

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No Enigma on Arrival

Stepping off the plane used to be the first hit of the smells of India. The dust, a faint whiff of diesel, and the pungent naphtha whenever passing a lavatory in the dimly lit hallways of the airport while walking … Continue reading

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As the clever hopes expire of a low dishonest decade

Well, we knew this, but somehow it’s always reassuring when the latest newfangled tehnique confirms one’s bias! Network analysis indicates that a small elite has disproportionate control of the world economy. The graph is certainly pretty. Add to this the … Continue reading

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Philly Fed craters and software bots nowhere to be seen…

My friend Mark has talked about the value of an AI program to scan news releases and trade rapidly off of them. Naturally I assumed this had been long ago done given all the chatter about computerized trading… Today, I … Continue reading

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The Empire Manufacturing Data is In, and the Winners Are….

The Double Dippers! The future new orders and shipments indexes dropped to their lowest levels since September 2001. Now it’s Japan’s Q3 rebound vs New York’s Q3 slide… who will win the round?

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"The Name is Bond, Euro Bond"

This Yahoo piece summarizes the state of play of the top issue of the moment.

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Recession Watch

John Hussman’s composite recession predictor has been flashing red for about 10 days, and it’s been very good. It did not falsely flag last summer’s swoon as an oncoming recession, while it nailed the 2008 decline in Dec 2007. This … Continue reading

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